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VR Games? It's Easy If You Do It Smart

Over the last couple of years, we've seen a plethora of news articles about the way virtual reality was about to save the classic arcade. The theory goes that the VR gear is too expensive for home users, so it creates an opportunity for operators to pony up the big bucks to purchase it and then make their money back by charging a match to play with it. Even Nolan Bushnell, indoor playground equipment the inventor of Pong, is trying to hype the tech as the industry's savior. From the MIT Technology Review.
"While several high-end headsets were released last year that can bring virtual-reality adventures to your living room, adoption of this technology remains in its earliest days for a bunch of reasons--it's still bulky, expensive, and there isn't all that far to do as soon as you've got it on your face. More than two million headsets were shipped worldwide in 2016, according to a quote from market researcher Canalys, but this figure pales in comparison to the popularity of, say, video game consoles (sales of their top one, Sony's PS4, topped six million throughout the 2016 holiday season alone). Consumer virtual reality will probably catch on as costs come down and headsets improve. In the meantime, though, a number of companies are betting that consumers may be happy to pay a much smaller sum to try out the tech with their friends at, say, an arcade, theme park, or even bowling alley."
It is tempting to fall into this snare, but from an operator's perspective VR is a terrible deal. Aside from buying a brand new car and driving it a time, I can't think of a way you could lose money quicker between what you pay and what you will be able to get down the street.
Another limitation for most operators is that while you may have the ability to provide a space for VR people to roam around in now, as new VR tech is unveiled, we're likely to find the point expanded from 100 square feet into the entire world. Instead of viewing just the matches from your headset, you'll realize the true world with game play overlayed. Since the technology allows more actual world areas to be researched, it's going to make a cramped arcade seem fairly lame in comparison.
VR is already heading for mass market acceptance, however it is demand is not being pushed by players who want to pay big buck to play video games, but such as the BETAMAX that came before it, by individuals who wish to watch porn in their houses.
Even when an operator can create a bit of money for the next few decades, after VR achieves critical mass, it will crush whatever revenue stream that operators are dreaming of. Don't believe me? Just check out what's happening in China.
Last year, an eye popping 35,000 virtual reality arcades opened in China. A year later 22,000 of them have closed.
This is an incredible failure rate over this short period of time and one that should serve as a sharp warning to anyone contemplating investing in the VR games. Maybe Dave and Busters can afford to take losses over the games longer than Chinese startup arcades, however I doubt that most North American operators are going to fare much better using the tech in their game rooms and will just wind up in debt at the close of the day.
The issue essentially boils down to consumers not being willing to pay a premium for the encounter. Tech In Asia, describes the issue perfectly in their article, on the Chinese VR boom and bust.

"Enterprising store owners leaping into VR are finding it impossible to charge fees comparable to cinemas or bowling alleys to get a VR experience. 1 VR arcade owner told iHeima he saw eager queues when charging US$1.50 to get a 30-minute session, but everybody disappeared as it climbed to US$5. From that sort of revenue it is impossible to pay the lease."
Even if the match was sold out all day, at $1.50 per half hour they are just earning $30 a day.
The real world information streaming in from China must serve as a canary in the quarter plantations of North America. Operators who invest considerable amounts of money on fancy VR setups will soon find their small VR rooms being replaced by the whole world as a stage. As the installations get cheaper, smaller and more portable, the virtual arcades will seem more expensive, bulky and limited.
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